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Mexico has come so far at the 2018 FIFA World Cup — but still has a long way to go. Mexico will face Sweden at 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday in its final World Cup 2018 Group F game. Mexico enters the contest in first place after consecutive wins but still needs a win or draw against Sweden to clinch a spot in the Round of 16. Sweden must win by two or more goals in order to secure a place in the knockout phase of the tournament.

 Oddsmakers peg Mexico as the slightest of favorites. Let’s look at the Mexico vs. Sweden betting lines: Current betting line (via OddsShark.com): Mexico win: +140 Sweden win: +210 Draw: +225 Total goals: 2.5 OVER: +120 Under: -145 NESN.com’s picks: Mexico win, under Mexico has performed superbly so far in Russia, and we see no reason for that to change Wednesday.

 Mexico is better technically, tactically and mentally, and the physical edge Sweden might have held against El Tri will be diminished after Sweden’s exhausting and heartbreaking loss to Germany. Bet on Mexico to win. Goals will be hard to come by in this one, considering both teams are laser-focused on fulfilling their realistic expectations of advancing to the Round of 16. Mexico will score at least one but no more than two, and we have little faith in Sweden responding with a goal. Take the under.